Optimal Management of Southern Pine Plantations Under Varying Economic Conditions
Wednesday, July 7, 2021
Time
Event
8:00
Registration
8:30-8:45
Welcome – Ingvar Elle, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources
8:45-10:00
Management Options and Biological Results *Optimal implies that there is an objective for management *Changes in timber management options over the last 50 years *As economic conditions vary demand also varies *To compare management alternatives we need to estimate wood for different management strategies at different ages – growth models *Biological growth – products, values, stand value vs tree value *Optimal biological rotations *Characteristics unique to timber as an investment *Effect of markets and risk on management decisions
10:00-10:15
Break
10:15-12:00
Financial Concepts and their Use in Decision Making *Financial Values - NPV, BLV, discounting, real and nominal interest rates. *Financial values and optimum management strategies *What constitutes a management regime *Optimum financial rotations compared to optimum biological rotations *Changes that can cause substantive changes in optimum financial rotation *Ranking management regimes *Quantifying cost of a one year delay in regeneration *Concept of Marginal Rate of Return
Noon
Lunch
1:00-3:00
Estimates of Future Stand Level Yields and Value are Key to Making Informed Decisions *NPV of future wood flows allows for objective management decisions *Prediction vs projection *Estimating yields for young stands (less than age 8-10) *Prediction uses growth and yield models which predict averages *Do averages exist anywhere? – A problem with strata level rather than stand level management *Projection provides a reset to growth and yield model using inventory data *Inventory data needed for use in projection *Incorporating inventory data for older stands *Allows for incorporation of measured dbh distribution, tree quality, and degrade *Examples of predicted estimates vs projected estimates *Underscores importance of inventory accuracy
3:00-3:15
Break
3:15-5:00
Where did all this wood come from? Incorporating Silvicultural Responses *Types and magnitude of silvicultural responses *Adjusting for genetics, herbaceous weed control, juvenile fertilization, chemical site preparation for young stands(age < 8-10) or older stands with no inventory data *Adjusting for earlier silvicultural responses in projections of stands with inventory data
5:00 pm
Adjourn
Thursday, July 8, 2021
Time
Event
8:00 a.m.
Quick review of day 1 and Question/Answer
8:15-10:00
Evaluating Existing Stand Alternatives: When to Hold em; When to Fold em *Effect of future management and future rotation decisions on optimum rotation age for existing stands *Calculating NPV incorporating future management and future rotations *Evaluating existing stands under different pricing alternatives: (1) Low pulpwood (PW) relative to solid wood (SW), (2) High PW relative to SW, (3) Low prices all products, (4) High prices all products *How to handle thinning cash flows when evaluating stand alternatives *How to handle fertilizer and brush control costs when evaluating stand alternatives
10:00-10:15
Break
10:15-12:00
A Commonly Used Alternative for Existing Stands is Thinning *General concepts of thinning *Stand development with and without thinning *Impacts of thinning on optimum rotation age with different stumpage pricing *Effects of planting density and genetics on thinning timing and returns *Importance of intermediate cash flows on financial returns
Noon
Lunch
1:00-2:00
Thinning Continued *Importance of stem quality in thinning *Importance of getting a quality operational thinning job *Thinning intensity effects on returns *Correlation of age of first thin and optimal rotation age *Cost of delaying age of first thin from optimal *Reducing price of PW in first thin or giving it away to get timely thinning
2:00-3:00
To Fertilize or Not to Fertilize? Impact on Optimal Rotations and Financial Returns *Fertilization response – type, duration, and magnitude *Impact of fertilization on total and product yields *Fertilization and thinning *Marginal rates of return – fertilization *Cost of fertilization and effect on returns
3:00-3:15
Break
3:15-4:00
Brush Control in Existing Stands – Impacts on Optimum Rotations and Financial Returns *Brush control response – type, duration, and magnitude *Impact of brush control on total and product yields *Brush control and thinning *Marginal rates of return – brush control
4:00-4:30
Effects of Other Cash Flows on Optimal Management Decisions *Pine straw leases *Hunting leases
